How many people live in Cuba?

The official year

A year earlier

9,748,007

Fall in one year

−313,414

Growth rate

-32.7 ‰

Median age

43.0

Three counts, and what each one is measuring

These are not competing guesses at the same quantity. Each is answering a slightly different question, which is why a page that simply asserts one number is less useful than one that shows all three.

1. ONEI, the official register

   9,434,593 · 2025

   The figure Cuba publishes: residents on the books at 31 December. It captures departures only as they are recorded, so a person who has left but not been struck off is still counted. This is the number used by the Cuban state and by most international agencies, and it is the headline figure on this page.

2. The CIA World Factbook model

   10,059,519 · 2025

   A projection built on earlier census data and assumed rates, published as a 2025 estimate. Models of this kind lag sudden shocks, and the post-2021 exodus was exactly that — which is why it sits well above Cuba's own count. It is the figure our /almanac page carries, because that page reproduces the Factbook faithfully.

3. The independent demographic estimate

   8,025,624 · 2024

   Cuban demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos has published a markedly lower figure for late 2024, arguing the official register has not caught up with departures. It is a serious, published estimate rather than a rumour, and it sets the floor of the plausible range.

What happened in a single year

Two forces are working in the same direction at once, which is unusual and is why the fall is so steep. Cubans are leaving in very large numbers, and the population that remains is no longer replacing itself: deaths ran to almost exactly double births in 2025.

Births

68,064

Deaths

136,214

Natural change

−68,150

Net migration

−245,264

Why the numbers move

1. 1

   Emigration is the dominant term

   Net migration accounts for roughly four fifths of the annual loss. The scale is without modern precedent — larger, in a single year, than the Mariel boatlift and the 1994 balsero crisis combined — and it is driven by the economic crisis, the blackouts and the collapse in real wages rather than by any single policy change.

2. 2

   Births have fallen off a cliff

   Cuba recorded fewer births in 2025 than in any year in living memory. Cuban outlets note the figure is lower even than 1899, when the island was emerging from the war of independence with a fraction of today's population — a comparison worth treating as illustrative rather than a like-for-like statistic.

3. 3

   Deaths are elevated and will stay so

   An old population produces a high death rate almost mechanically. With more than 2.5 million people over 60, deaths substantially exceeding births is now the structural condition rather than a temporary one.

4. 4

   The register lags reality

   A resident who leaves is removed from the count only when the departure is recorded, and emigration under crisis conditions is not always tidy paperwork. This is the single biggest reason serious estimates diverge, and it means the official figure should be read as an upper bound.

What it looks like on the ground

• ·Rural municipalities and small towns are emptying faster than the cities, and Havana's share of the national population is rising even as its absolute numbers fall.
• ·The age profile is visible in daily life: it is a country with conspicuously many older people and comparatively few young adults, because it is the 20-to-40 cohort that has left.
• ·Services built for eleven million people are being run for nine — which is part of why schools consolidate, buses run thinner and clinics lose staff.
• ·For a visitor none of this is abstract: the shortage of working-age people is a direct cause of the staffing and supply problems that shape the practical realities described on our money and internet pages.

Frequently asked questions

What is the population of Cuba?

Cuba's National Office of Statistics and Information recorded 9,434,593 residents at the close of 2025. That is the official figure. Other credible sources give higher and lower numbers — see the comparison on this page — because they measure the same country in different ways.

Is Cuba's population going up or down?

Down, and sharply. The island lost 313,414 people during 2025 alone, a rate of −32.7 per thousand inhabitants. The decline has been continuous since 2021 and is the steepest in Cuba's modern history.

Why do different sources give different populations for Cuba?

Because they are built differently. Cuba's own count is a register of recorded residents; the CIA World Factbook publishes a model-based projection that lags sudden emigration; and independent demographers argue the register has not caught up with departures. The spread between the highest and lowest published figures is around two million.

Why is Cuba's population falling?

Mostly emigration, which accounted for a net loss of 245,264 people in 2025 — roughly four fifths of the total decline. The rest is natural: 68,064 births against 136,214 deaths, so deaths were almost exactly double births.

How old is Cuba's population?

Very old by regional standards. About 26.7% of Cubans are 60 or over, the highest proportion in Latin America and the Caribbean, and the median age is 43. The fertility rate is 1.29 children per woman, well below the replacement level of about 2.1.

How many people lived in Cuba before the decline?

Cuba had over eleven million residents at the end of 2020. On the official figures the island has shed well over a million and a half people in five years, which is why the decline is described as unprecedented rather than merely notable.

How does this compare with the figure on the CubaAtlas almanac page?

The almanac reproduces the CIA World Factbook, which estimates just over ten million for 2025 — around 625,000 above Cuba's own count. Both are reported here as published; this page explains why they differ rather than silently choosing between them.